Grayscale Research said bitcoin could set new all-time highs in 2026, pushing back against fears that the cryptocurrency is entering a deep, multi-year downturn.

• In a report published Monday, Grayscale argued that bitcoin is unlikely to follow the so-called four-year cycle — the widely held belief that BTC's price tends to peak and then undergo a severe correction once every four years, in line with its halving schedule. 
• "Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that bitcoin's price will potentially make new highs next year," Grayscale analysts said.
• Bitcoin has been experiencing a turbulent stretch since early October, falling 32% from its peak through most of November. The price briefly touched $84,000 on Monday before recovering to $86,909 as of 2:20 a.m. ET Tuesday, The Block's price page shows.
• Grayscale noted that while long-term investors have historically been rewarded for holding through volatility, they must often "stomach sometimes challenging drawdowns" along the way. Pullbacks of 25% or more, the firm added, are common during bull markets and don't necessarily signal the start of a prolonged downtrend.

Breaking the four-year cycle

• Grayscale outlined several reasons why bitcoin is set to break away from its typical four-year rhythm.
• Grayscale pointed out that unlike prior bull markets, this cycle has not seen the kind of parabolic rally that typically precedes a major reversal.
• Unlike prior cycles, the current market structure sees institutional money concentrated in exchange-traded products and digital asset treasuries instead of retail activity on spot exchanges, the report said.
• The macro environment remains relatively supportive as well, Grayscale added, with potential rate cuts and bipartisan momentum on U.S. crypto legislation offering further tailwinds.
• Tom Lee, CEO of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, echoed Grayscale's view, noting what he sees as a growing disconnect between market fundamentals and prices. 
• "Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals, measured by wallets, onchain, fees or tokenization, have moved forward." Lee wrote on Monday in a post on X. "So risk/reward is attractive for BTC and ETH."

Lee also told CNBC on the same day that he remains bullish on bitcoin and expects the world's largest cryptocurrency to set a fresh all-time high by January next year.

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The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has approved the Grayscale DOGE and XRP ETFs and will begin trading on Monday.

• NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the exchange, received the certification from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for “its approval for listing and registration.” The broader cryptocurrency market is expected to remain in the green, with Bitcoin seeing a recovery.
• On Monday’s opening bell, Grayscale’s DOGE and XRP ETFs will go live, allowing institutional clients to take entry positions. This is a pivoting point for both cryptocurrencies, as an uptick in the charts is on the cards.

Traders who took an entry position when XRP fell to the $1.9 range on Friday could benefit.

Grayscale ETFs: XRP and DOGE Turn Green on Monday

• On the heels of the opening bell, the launch of Grayscale’s XRP and DOGE ETFs has made both cryptocurrencies turn green.
• While Dogecoin soared more than 2% on Monday, XRP is up nearly 1.5%. The leading cryptocurrencies could rise further as the market approaches the opening bell.
• The altcoin went from a low of $1.90 to a high of $2.08 in a day, delivering nearly 10% profits.
• Investments from Grayscale’s institutional funds could cause the XRP and DOGE ETFs’ prices to soar. In addition, interest from retail traders could also rise, as investors want to make the most out of the much-awaited launch.
• Riding the bandwagon on the day of the launch can usually generate profits due to the hype and buzz it creates.
• Apart from Grayscale’s XRP ETF, Canary Capital, Bitwise, 21Shares, and CoinShares have also launched institutional trading. This is the time when XRP could turn bullish, rewarding investors who held on during the downturn.

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• Grayscale Investments has filed to go public, marking one of the most notable Wall Street moves by a cryptocurrency-related asset management firm this year.
• The company has filed a confidential draft IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, according to a notice dated November 13, 2023.

Grayscale's IPO Shows a Common Trend Among Crypto Companies in 2025

• The filing marks Grayscale's planned transition from private ownership to a public listing.
• The company manages tens of billions of dollars in Cryptoasset through multiple trusts and ETFs, including its flagship Bitcoin product. The offering will depend on market conditions and regulatory approval, the company said.
• The move comes after months of speculation when Grayscale first filed its draft S-1 security in July 2023. The company had not disclosed a timetable at that time, but today's confirmation suggests the plan has been accelerated. Market analysts had predicted the earliest possible listing date would be late 2025 or early 2026.
• Estimates from industry analysts range, with an expected value between $30 billion and $33 billion.
• The IPO reflects a more favorable regulatory environment for Cryptoasset managers in the United States. The conversion of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust into an ETF has boosted investment Capital and cemented its presence in the public markets. The company now appears to be capitalizing on this to grow further.
• However, there are still major hurdles. The influence of parent company Digital Currency Group could weigh on investor sentiment as the filings progress.
• Today's news adds to a wave of listings in the crypto space , including Gemini, Circle , and Bullish.

However, Grayscale's size makes this filing the most notable, with investors now awaiting official details of the S-1 and regulatory response in the coming months.

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