Winter Solstice is here
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JU Blog
2025-12-21 07:19
Winter Solstice is here
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Bitcoin bags are getting blown out today, as the price of BTC falls to nearly $80,000 and marks a new seven-month low.
- The continued downward pressure on its price has pushed Bitcoin into a so-called death cross—when the average price of an asset over the short term falls below the average price over the long term. It’s a technical pattern that typically signals extended bearish momentum. For traders who study charts, it confirms what permabulls don’t want to hear: It’s over—at least for now.
- It’s happening as the crypto market as a whole shrinks to $2.91 trillion, shedding nearly $60 billion in the past 24 hours alone. Almost every single coin in the top 100 by market cap is bleeding red.
- The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, has cratered to 14 points—just four points above the year's low of 10 back in February. When this index drops below 20, it signals "extreme fear," and right now, traders are absolutely terrified.
- But it's not just crypto drama driving the market selloff. The macro picture is turning nasty. Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in a 97% chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December. Now? Those odds have collapsed to somewhere between 22% and 43%, depending on which metric you check.
- Fed officials are openly divided, with many signaling they'd prefer to keep rates unchanged through year-end. For risk assets like crypto that thrive on easy money, this is poison.
- On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are now overwhelmingly convinced that Bitcoin will not mark a new all-time high this year, placing odds at almost 90% that BTC will not top the $126K mark that it hit on October 6.
- The bearish vibes are so strong, Myriad traders also currently place 40% odds that Bitcoin falls as low as $69K. So how low will it go? Here’s what the charts say.
- Bitcoin opened today at $86,691 and immediately sold off, hitting an intraday low of $80,620 before bouncing slightly to its current price at $85,187. That's a 1.61% drop on the day after being almost 5% down over the last 24 hours. More importantly, for traders, it further confirms the death cross pattern that's been progressively forming since its all-time high in early October. The death cross pattern was first confirmed on Wednesday as Bitcoin slid to around $88,000—now it’s fallen deeper.
- Here's what's happening on the charts: Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken.
- For Bitcoin, the 50-day EMA has now decisively crossed below the 200-day EMA. In short, this tells traders market momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. The gap between both EMAs increases the more the price of BTC trades below those targets—and the bigger the gap, the stronger the trend.
- The price of Bitcoin is now trading well below both EMAs, which creates a situation where each bounce attempt faces immediate resistance, increasing the gap between the two EMAs, making the bearish trend even stronger. Bulls trying to push higher will need to first reclaim the 50-day EMA, then tackle the 200-day—a double wall of resistance that's historically tough to crack in one go.
- As for other technical indicators, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 41, which is considered "strong." ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 indicating a clear trend is in place. At 41, this tells us we’re not seeing just a minor correction, but a potentially extended move lower.
- The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has plunged to 23.18, placing Bitcoin deep in oversold territory. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 signaling oversold conditions where assets are potentially undervalued. However, "oversold" doesn't mean the selling has to stop—in strong downtrends, RSI can remain in oversold territory for extended periods as prices continue grinding lower. But, yes, this also provides hopium for momentum traders as it signals that the worst of it may be over. (The worst being an accelerated crash, not necessarily a steady drop.)
- The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is flashing "bearish impulse," meaning selling pressure is intensifying rather than easing. Meanwhile, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) shows the price of Bitcoin trading "below" key volume nodes, suggesting there's not much buying interest at current levels.
- So, everything is bearish, clearly. But where's the next support? How low can the price of BTC go? The chart reveals several key horizontal levels to watch.
- The immediate danger zone is $80,697, which briefly held today but looked shaky. If that breaks, the next major support sits at $74,555, followed by $65,727, and potentially all the way down to $53,059 if panic really sets in during a crypto winter. Those price levels have previous consolidation zones where significant trading volume accumulated, making them natural landing spots for oversold bounces.
- For resistances, traders will watch for BTC’s price breaking past $90,000 again and look at $100,000 as the major psychological target.
- Ethereum opened at $2,830.7 and dropped as low as $2,621 intraday before stabilizing around $2,798—a 1.16% loss on the day. While not as dramatic as Bitcoin's selloff, ETH's technical picture is equally concerning.
- Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum hasn't fully confirmed its death cross yet—the 50-day EMA is still technically above the 200-day, giving it a "long" signal on an indicator that is obviously hours away from changing to bearish. The gap is razor-thin and closing fast. More importantly, ETH’s price is trading well below both EMAs, rendering that technical distinction somewhat meaningless. The bearish momentum is clearly established.
- A good way to see the natural support zones is using the Fibonacci retracements: a set of natural clusters that appear during a trend, showing supports and resistances in a specific timeframe—not because of price, but because of natural proportions.
- Right now, ETH is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately $2,755. If this level breaks, the next Fibonacci support doesn't appear until $2,180, which would represent a massive 22% drop from current prices, and would resolve a price market on Myriad betting on ETH’s moon or doom.
- The ADX for Ethereum is even stronger than Bitcoin's at 46, indicating the downtrend is rock-solid. Meanwhile, RSI sits at 28.46—not quite as oversold as Bitcoin but definitely in stressed territory. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows "bearish impulse" here too, confirming sellers are in control.
- XRP is showing relative strength compared to its larger peers, down just 0.50% to close at $1.98 after opening at $1.99 and hitting an intraday low of $1.81796. Don't let that modest percentage fool you though—the technical damage is real.
- Like Bitcoin, the Ripple-linked XRP has confirmed a full death cross with its 50-day EMA now below the 200-day. The price of XRP is trading beneath both EMAs, and with an ADX of 32, the downtrend has enough strength to continue. While 32 isn't as extreme as Bitcoin's 41 or Ethereum's 46, it's still well above the 25 threshold that confirms a trend is in place rather than just random chop.
- The RSI at 32.86 shows XRP is approaching oversold territory but hasn't quite reached the extreme stress levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could mean two things: either XRP has more downside before finding equilibrium, or it's showing genuine relative strength that could make it a safer harbor if the broader market continues tanking.
- XRP had such a crazy year that its price action shows only two major horizontal support levels that should concern XRP holders—and that would be very painful for hodlers, considering the movement from the all-time high to those targets.
- The next major support zone sits at $1.589, which represents a potential 20% drop from current levels. If that breaks, there's very little support until $0.66, a catastrophic 67% plunge from current prices and almost 80% from all-time high zone that would take XRP back to early 2024 levels.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is showing "bearish impulse," and like the other coins, the volume profile indicates XRP’s price is trading below key volume levels, meaning there's not much buying interest stepping in to defend current prices.
#Bitcoin #BitcoinDeathCross #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $BTC/USDT $JU/USDT $ETH/USDT
While discussions are growing that Bitcoin-focused company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could be removed from MSCI indices, the company’s chairman, Michael Saylor, maintained that the operating model is robust and that this possibility will not affect the company’s roadmap.
- MSCI has proposed removing “digital asset treasury companies” whose portfolios consist largely of cryptocurrencies from its indexes. While it noted that such companies “may exhibit characteristics similar to mutual funds,” it stated that these structures are not suitable for the indexes. The final decision will be announced on January 15th.
- In his latest post, Saylor explained that Strategy is an operating company. He pointed out that, in addition to its Bitcoin reserves, it also has a $500 million enterprise software division that has been serving corporations and public institutions for over 20 years.
- Saylor stated, “We understand that index providers periodically review their methodologies, but Strategy is not an ETF, it is not a closed-end fund, and it is certainly not a passive proxy for Bitcoin. We produce, operate, and grow just like any other business.” He added that inclusion or removal from the index would not change the company's strategy, operations, or long-term belief in BTC.
- JPMorgan issued a note this week warning that Strategy's removal from the index could lead to billions of dollars in passive outflows. Analysts estimate that a potential removal from MSCI could lead to a $2.8 billion outflow from passive funds. Overall, approximately $9 billion of Strategy's market capitalization is estimated to be tied to passive, index-tracking ETFs and mutual funds.
The sharp decline in Bitcoin's price is also putting pressure on Strategy shares, which have lost nearly 40% of their value this year.
#Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #MichaelSaylor #Jucom #cryptocurrency $BTC/USDT $JU/USDT $ETH/USDT
The price of Cardano (ADA) was down on Friday after the blockchain suffered an unexpected chain split, which was caused by a malformed delegation transaction that triggered a software flaw. That created problems for Cardano users, and prompted a public apology from the user who claimed that they caused it.
- Intersect, the Cardano ecosystem’s governance organization, said in an incident report that the divergence began when the malformed transaction passed validation on newer node versions, but nodes running older software rejected it.
- “This exploited a bug in an underlying software library that was not trapped by validation code,” Intersect wrote. “The execution of this transaction caused a divergence in the blockchain, effectively splitting the network into two distinct chains: one containing the ‘poisoned’ transaction and a ‘healthy’ chain without it.”
- Earlier that day, Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson posted on X that it was a “premeditated attack from a disgruntled [stake pool operator]” who was “actively looking at ways to harm the brand and reputation of [Cardano developer Input/Output Global].”
- According to Hoskinson, all Cardano users were impacted. The price of Cardano’s token ADA was down more than 6% recently, following the incident.
- According to the incident report, the mismatch caused operators to build blocks on different branches of the chain until patched node software was deployed. Developers and service providers coordinated an emergency response, and operators were urged to upgrade to rejoin the main chain.
- Intersect said the wallet responsible for the malformed transaction has been identified, while Hoskinson said it will take weeks to clean up the mess.
- “Forensic analysis suggests links to a participant from the Incentivized Testnet (ITN) era,” Intersect wrote. “As this incident constitutes a potential cyberattack on a digital network, relevant authorities, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation, are being engaged to investigate.”
- Hours after the incident, an X user posting under the name Homer J. said they were responsible for submitting the transaction that triggered the split.
- “Sorry Cardano folks, it was me who endangered the network with my careless action yesterday evening,” they wrote, describing the attempt as a personal challenge to reproduce the “bad transaction” and said he relied on AI-generated instructions while blocking traffic on their server.
- “I've felt awful as soon as I realized the scale of what I've caused. I know there's nothing I can do to make up for all the pain and stress I've caused over the past X hours,” they added. “Difficult to quantify the negligence on my behalf. I am sorry, I truly am. I didn't have evil intentions.”
- Homer wrote that he did not sell or short ADA, did not coordinate with anyone else, and did not act for financial gain. “I'm ashamed of my carelessness and take full responsibility for it and whatever consequences will follow,” he said.
- According to Intersect, no user funds were lost, and most retail wallets were unaffected because they were running node components that handled the malformed transaction safely.
- Hoskinson, the outspoken co-founder of Cardano, claimed in a video message that the network “didn’t go down,” though users did encounter issues before the problem was fixed.
“It is important to note that the network did not stall. Block production continued on both chains throughout the incident, and at least some identical transactions appeared on both chains,” Intersect wrote. “However, to ensure the integrity of the ledger, exchanges and third-party providers largely paused deposits and withdrawals as a precautionary measure.”
#Cardano #CardanoNetwork #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $ADA/USDT $JU/USDT $BTC/USDT
The Ju.com Thanksgiving Twitter AMA explored the three most critical trends shaping crypto's evolution: leverage reset, Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization breakthrough, and maturing stablecoin payment infrastructure. Here's what you need to know:
📊 Market Leverage Cleanse
Bitcoin futures open interest plunged ~30% from its $47.5B peak, marking one of the largest leverage resets of the current cycle. This isn't a bear signal—it's a healthy market correction:
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Funding rates returned to neutral levels
Over-leveraged positions cleared, reducing systemic risk
Foundation set for sustainable price appreciation in 2025-2026
💼 RWA Tokenization: From Narrative to $30B Reality
Real World Asset tokenization surpassed $30B market cap in Q3 2025, a 10x increase from 2022 levels:
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Private credit dominates with 58% market share ($14B)
US Treasuries hold 34% market share ($8.2B)
Institutional validation from BlackRock BUIDL, Ondo, Franklin Templeton
Ju.com's xBrokers framework democratizes access to Hong Kong private placements, Pre-IPO stocks, and institutional-grade products. Licensed brokers hold custody while blockchain tokens represent shares 1:1, ensuring full compliance with secondary market liquidity.
💳 Stablecoin Payment Surge
Stablecoins processed $27 trillion in annual transaction volume, with monthly volumes approaching $1.25 trillion—independent of speculative trading:
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48% of payment providers cite real-time settlement as top advantage
Sub-Saharan Africa leads with 9.3% adoption rate globally
71% of Latin American companies already use stablecoins for cross-border payments
🚀 Ju.com Product Ecosystem
JuPay: Merchants receive local currency instantly via QR code, customers pay with Bitcoin/USDT—no blockchain knowledge required
JuCard: Crypto converts at point-of-sale, trading profits immediately available for everyday expenses
Ju Exclusive: Curated early-stage opportunities with institutional-level due diligence, cutting through social media hype
🌍 Regional Growth Hotspots
Emerging markets lead payment adoption:
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Africa, LatAm, Southeast Asia use crypto for actual needs versus speculation
Macro instability drives stablecoins as essential infrastructure
86% of payment companies report infrastructure ready for stablecoin adoption
🎯 2025 Key Outlook
Institutional adoption accelerating: Regulatory frameworks like MiCA and GENIUS Act reduce uncertainty
Payments meet trading: Complete financial ecosystems retain users
Speculation to utility: Crypto evolves into functional currency
💡 Core Takeaways
Three trends define crypto's future: 1️⃣ Cleaner leverage environment supports sustainable growth 2️⃣ RWA tokenization bridges traditional finance with blockchain 3️⃣ Stablecoin payment infrastructure finally works
In the next market cycle, exchanges offering complete financial ecosystems—trading, investing, yield generation, and payments—will capture disproportionate value.
Read the complete analysis and market strategies 👇 https://blog.ju.com/jucom-ama-thanksgiving-crypto-utility/?utm_source=blog
#Jucom #Crypto #RWA #JuPay #JuCard
The Ethereum co-founder has repeatedly spoken this year about treating privacy as a basic necessity for digital systems.
- Following a recent data breach involving major US banks, where client information from institutions including JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley may have been exposed after a cyberattack on mortgage technology vendor SitusAMC, Buterin responded by describing privacy as a form of “hygiene.”
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said end-to-end encrypted messaging is essential for protecting digital privacy, identifying permissionless account creation and metadata privacy as the next major priorities for the sector.
He pointed to Session and SimpleX as two projects working on these areas and disclosed that he has donated 128 ETH to each of them.
Major ETH Donations
- In a post on X this week, Buterin said both applications are attempting to strengthen decentralization and enhance user protections without relying on phone numbers, while also addressing challenges such as multi-device support and resistance to Sybil or denial-of-service attacks.
- Buterin said the donation addresses are publicly available on the projects’ websites and added that, although the platforms are not yet perfect, they represent active efforts to advance privacy-preserving communication.
- He also called for more developers to help tackle the technical problems that still remain, and added that these issues “need more eyes on them.”
- It is important to note that while Signal has emerged as a widely used encrypted messaging app, it faced renewed scrutiny following a March incident in which senior US national security officials accidentally included a reporter in a Signal group discussing strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
- Days later, a Pentagon-wide advisory warned against using the app for any non-public information, citing a vulnerability tied to its linked-devices feature.
- The memo said Russian hacking groups were targeting the users of the app through phishing tactics. Signal later attributed the issue to user-targeted attacks rather than problems with its encryption, and that the company had already implemented safeguards and warnings.
Buterin’s Privacy Push
- In an essay published in April, he argued that “privacy is an important guarantor of decentralization” and outlined a path for Ethereum to support stealth addresses, selective disclosure, and application-level zero-knowledge tools to help reduce unnecessary data exposure.
- More recently, he warned that X’s new geo-inference system, which assigns country labels to user accounts, poses privacy risks.
He said such systems can still reveal sensitive location information and may endanger vulnerable users, even when only broad regions are disclosed.
#Ethereum #VitalikButerin #Jucom #cryptocurrency #EncryptedMessages $ETH/USDT $JU/USDT $BTC/USDT
Google released Gemini 3 Pro in a public preview today, calling it the company's most capable AI model to date.
- The system handles text, images, audio, and video simultaneously while processing up to 1 million tokens of context—roughly equivalent to 700,000 words, or about 10 full-length novels.
- The preview model is available for free for anyone to try here.
- Google said the model outperformed its predecessor, Gemini 2.5 Pro, across nearly every benchmark the company tested.
- On Humanity's Last Exam, an academic reasoning test, Gemini 3 Pro scored 37.5% compared to 2.5 Pro's 21.6%. On ARC-AGI-2, a visual reasoning puzzle benchmark, the gap widened further: 31.1% versus 4.9%.
- Of course, the real challenge at this point in the AI race isn’t technical so much as it is gaining commercial market share.
- Google, which once seemed indomitable in the search space, has given up an enormous amount of ground to OpenAI, which claims some 800 million weekly users ChatGPT versus Gemini, which reportedly has around 650 million monthly users. Google has not said how many weekly numbers it has, but that would be far fewer than its monthly count.
Still, the technical achievements of Gemini 3 are impressive.
Introducing Gemini 3 — our most intelligent model that helps you bring any idea to life.
Gemini 3 is our next step on the path toward AGI and has: 🧠 State-of-the-art reasoning 🖼️ Deep multimodal understanding 💻 Powerful vibe coding so you can go from prompt to app in one shot… pic.twitter.com/zG8r95pGcS
— Google (@Google) November 18, 2025
- Gemini 3 Pro uses what Google calls a sparse mixture-of-experts architecture. Instead of activating all 1 trillion-plus parameters for every query, the system routes each input to specialized subnetworks.
- Only a fraction of the model—the expert at that specific task—runs at any given time, cutting computational costs while maintaining performance.
- Unlike GPT and Claude, which are large, dense models (a jack of all trades), Google’s approach acts like a large organization would operate.
- A company with 1,000 employees doesn't call everyone to every meeting; specific teams handle specific problems. Gemini 3 Pro works the same way, directing questions to the right expert networks.
- Google trained the model on web documents, code repositories, images, audio files, and video—plus synthetic data generated by other AI systems.
- The company filtered the training data for quality and safety, removing pornographic content, violent material, and anything violating child safety laws. Training happened on Google's Tensor Processing Units using JAX and ML Pathways software.
- A quick test of the model showed that it was very capable. In our usual coding test asking to generate a stealth game, this was the first model that generated a 3D game instead of a 2D experience. Other runs provided 2D versions, but all were functional and fast.
- This approach follows the style of ChatGPT or Perplexity which encourage further interactions by sharing follow-up questions and suggestions, but Google’s implementation is a lot cleaner and more helpful.
- While generating code, the interface provides tips to help in subsequent prompts, so the user can guide the model into generating better code, fixing bugs, and improving the app’s logic, UI, etc. It also gives users the option to deploy their code and code Gemini-powered apps.
Overall, this model seems to be especially focused on coding tasks. Creativity is not its strong point, but it can be easy to guide with a good system prompt and examples, as it has a very large token context window.
- An archived version of Gemini 3’s model card—a document that provides essential information about the model's design, intended use, performance, and limitations—published by Google DeepMind shows that Gemini 3 Pro can generate up to 64,000 tokens of output and maintains a knowledge cutoff of January 2025.
- Google acknowledged the model may hallucinate and occasionally experiences slowness or timeouts. An official model card is not currently available.
- As mentioned, Google AI Studio is currently offering everyone free access to Gemini 3 Pro. Vertex AI and the Gemini API also support the model. Gemini 3 Pro is not yet available through the Gemini app, however—not even for paying Gemini Pro subscribers.
- The November release positions Google against Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.5, Grok 4.1 and even OpenAI's GPT-5.1. Benchmark scores suggest Gemini 3 Pro leads in reasoning and multimodal tasks, though real-world performance varies by use case.
Google distributed Gemini 3 Pro through its cloud platforms subject to existing terms of service. The company's generative AI prohibited use policy applies, blocking use in dangerous activities, security compromises, sexually explicit content, violence, hate speech, and misinformation. #Google#AIModel#Gemini3#Jucom #cryptocurrency $BTC/USDT $ETH/USDT $JU/USDT