Lee | Ju.Com
Lee | Ju.Com2025-10-27 04:28

📛 Bitcoin illiquid supply declines as 62,000 BTC moves out of long-term holder wallets.

About $7 billion worth of Bitcoin has moved out of long-term holder wallets since mid-October, according to Glassnode data, decreasing BTC's illiquid supply and potentially making it harder for a price rally to catch momentum. 

About 62,000 BTC has moved out of long-term, inactive wallets since mid-October, according to Glassnode, the first significant decline in the second half of 2025. Bitcoin's price has declined in recent weeks from its all-time high price over $125,000, achieved in early October, and currently trades around $113,550, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price page. 

"What's interesting is that whale wallets have actually been accumulating during this phase," Glassnode wrote on X. "Over the last 30 days, whale wallets have grown their holdings, and since October 15th, they haven't largely sold their positions."

Glassnode also noted that wallets holding about $10,000 to $1,000,000 worth of BTC have shown the largest outflows, with consistent selling since November of last year. "Momentum buyers have largely exited, while dip-buyers failed to step in with enough demand to absorb that supply," Glassnode wrote. "With first-time buyers flat, this imbalance is pressuring prices until stronger spot demand returns."

Bitcoin's declining price coincides with a similar dip in the percentage of circulating BTC in profit, according to The Block's data. About 82.3% of the supply is currently in profit, up from a year-to-date low of 76.0% in April. 

A recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets evaluated Bitcoin's illiquid supply, estimating that nearly 42% of all supply, about 8.3 million BTC, will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032 if current trends hold. 

"Over time, the scarcity of bitcoin may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold the asset long term," the report states. "If nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment surrounding bitcoin continues to evolve, the growth of the illiquid supply could be even more dramatic." 

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Lee | Ju.Com

2025-10-27 04:29

📛 Bitcoin illiquid supply declines as 62,000 BTC moves out of long-term holder wallets.

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😱 Bitcoin in a Death Cross: How Low Will We Go?📛📛

Bitcoin bags are getting blown out today, as the price of BTC falls to nearly $80,000 and marks a new seven-month low.

  • The continued downward pressure on its price has pushed Bitcoin into a so-called death cross—when the average price of an asset over the short term falls below the average price over the long term. It’s a technical pattern that typically signals extended bearish momentum. For traders who study charts, it confirms what permabulls don’t want to hear: It’s over—at least for now.
  • It’s happening as the crypto market as a whole shrinks to $2.91 trillion, shedding nearly $60 billion in the past 24 hours alone. Almost every single coin in the top 100 by market cap is bleeding red.
  • The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, has cratered to 14 points—just four points above the year's low of 10 back in February. When this index drops below 20, it signals "extreme fear," and right now, traders are absolutely terrified.
  • But it's not just crypto drama driving the market selloff. The macro picture is turning nasty. Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in a 97% chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December. Now? Those odds have collapsed to somewhere between 22% and 43%, depending on which metric you check.
  • Fed officials are openly divided, with many signaling they'd prefer to keep rates unchanged through year-end. For risk assets like crypto that thrive on easy money, this is poison.
  • On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are now overwhelmingly convinced that Bitcoin will not mark a new all-time high this year, placing odds at almost 90% that BTC will not top the $126K mark that it hit on October 6.
  • The bearish vibes are so strong, Myriad traders also currently place 40% odds that Bitcoin falls as low as $69K. So how low will it go? Here’s what the charts say.
  • Bitcoin opened today at $86,691 and immediately sold off, hitting an intraday low of $80,620 before bouncing slightly to its current price at $85,187. That's a 1.61% drop on the day after being almost 5% down over the last 24 hours. More importantly, for traders, it further confirms the death cross pattern that's been progressively forming since its all-time high in early October. The death cross pattern was first confirmed on Wednesday as Bitcoin slid to around $88,000—now it’s fallen deeper.
  • Here's what's happening on the charts: Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken.
  • For Bitcoin, the 50-day EMA has now decisively crossed below the 200-day EMA. In short, this tells traders market momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. The gap between both EMAs increases the more the price of BTC trades below those targets—and the bigger the gap, the stronger the trend.
  • The price of Bitcoin is now trading well below both EMAs, which creates a situation where each bounce attempt faces immediate resistance, increasing the gap between the two EMAs, making the bearish trend even stronger. Bulls trying to push higher will need to first reclaim the 50-day EMA, then tackle the 200-day—a double wall of resistance that's historically tough to crack in one go.
  • As for other technical indicators, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 41, which is considered "strong." ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 indicating a clear trend is in place. At 41, this tells us we’re not seeing just a minor correction, but a potentially extended move lower.
  • The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has plunged to 23.18, placing Bitcoin deep in oversold territory. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 signaling oversold conditions where assets are potentially undervalued. However, "oversold" doesn't mean the selling has to stop—in strong downtrends, RSI can remain in oversold territory for extended periods as prices continue grinding lower. But, yes, this also provides hopium for momentum traders as it signals that the worst of it may be over. (The worst being an accelerated crash, not necessarily a steady drop.)
  • The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is flashing "bearish impulse," meaning selling pressure is intensifying rather than easing. Meanwhile, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) shows the price of Bitcoin trading "below" key volume nodes, suggesting there's not much buying interest at current levels.
  • So, everything is bearish, clearly. But where's the next support? How low can the price of BTC go? The chart reveals several key horizontal levels to watch.
  • The immediate danger zone is $80,697, which briefly held today but looked shaky. If that breaks, the next major support sits at $74,555, followed by $65,727, and potentially all the way down to $53,059 if panic really sets in during a crypto winter. Those price levels have previous consolidation zones where significant trading volume accumulated, making them natural landing spots for oversold bounces.
  • For resistances, traders will watch for BTC’s price breaking past $90,000 again and look at $100,000 as the major psychological target.
  • Ethereum opened at $2,830.7 and dropped as low as $2,621 intraday before stabilizing around $2,798—a 1.16% loss on the day. While not as dramatic as Bitcoin's selloff, ETH's technical picture is equally concerning.
  • Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum hasn't fully confirmed its death cross yet—the 50-day EMA is still technically above the 200-day, giving it a "long" signal on an indicator that is obviously hours away from changing to bearish. The gap is razor-thin and closing fast. More importantly, ETH’s price is trading well below both EMAs, rendering that technical distinction somewhat meaningless. The bearish momentum is clearly established.
  • A good way to see the natural support zones is using the Fibonacci retracements: a set of natural clusters that appear during a trend, showing supports and resistances in a specific timeframe—not because of price, but because of natural proportions.
  • Right now, ETH is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately $2,755. If this level breaks, the next Fibonacci support doesn't appear until $2,180, which would represent a massive 22% drop from current prices, and would resolve a price market on Myriad betting on ETH’s moon or doom.
  • The ADX for Ethereum is even stronger than Bitcoin's at 46, indicating the downtrend is rock-solid. Meanwhile, RSI sits at 28.46—not quite as oversold as Bitcoin but definitely in stressed territory. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows "bearish impulse" here too, confirming sellers are in control.
  • XRP is showing relative strength compared to its larger peers, down just 0.50% to close at $1.98 after opening at $1.99 and hitting an intraday low of $1.81796. Don't let that modest percentage fool you though—the technical damage is real.
  • Like Bitcoin, the Ripple-linked XRP has confirmed a full death cross with its 50-day EMA now below the 200-day. The price of XRP is trading beneath both EMAs, and with an ADX of 32, the downtrend has enough strength to continue. While 32 isn't as extreme as Bitcoin's 41 or Ethereum's 46, it's still well above the 25 threshold that confirms a trend is in place rather than just random chop.
  • The RSI at 32.86 shows XRP is approaching oversold territory but hasn't quite reached the extreme stress levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could mean two things: either XRP has more downside before finding equilibrium, or it's showing genuine relative strength that could make it a safer harbor if the broader market continues tanking.
  • XRP had such a crazy year that its price action shows only two major horizontal support levels that should concern XRP holders—and that would be very painful for hodlers, considering the movement from the all-time high to those targets.
  • The next major support zone sits at $1.589, which represents a potential 20% drop from current levels. If that breaks, there's very little support until $0.66, a catastrophic 67% plunge from current prices and almost 80% from all-time high zone that would take XRP back to early 2024 levels.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is showing "bearish impulse," and like the other coins, the volume profile indicates XRP’s price is trading below key volume levels, meaning there's not much buying interest stepping in to defend current prices.

#Bitcoin #BitcoinDeathCross #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $BTC/USDT $JU/USDT $ETH/USDT

💢 Bitcoin Just Wiped Out All Its 2025 Gains. What Would a “Crypto Winter” Look Like?

It’s been just over a month since Bitcoin hit an All-Time-High of $126,272.76 on October 6 , but things have gone from bad to worse since then. Now, that peak seems like a distant memory.

  • Bitcoin fell more than 9% in the week ending November 14 , and was trading below $92,000 on Monday. The sharp decline — partly due to whales selling — has pushed BTC below several key technical levels.
  • Last week, Bitcoin entered a “bear market,” meaning it fell 20% or more from its recent peak. Over the weekend, BTC also appeared in a “death cross” technical pattern — when the 50-day moving Medium crossed below the 200-day Medium . Not only that, Bitcoin officially wiped out all of its gains for 2025 .
  • All these signals indicate that negative sentiment is surrounding Bitcoin. But does that mean “crypto winter” is coming?
  • “ I don’t think we’re in a crypto winter. I think we’re seeing Bitcoin mature ,” Louis LaValle, CEO of Frontier Investments, told MarketWatch.
  • He argues that this is not a typical recession model where people give up, prices crash 70–80%, liquidation disappears, and interest evaporates. Instead, Bitcoin is going through a market structure shift , not a traditional bear cycle.

Beware of margin call risk

  • Kevin Kelly — portfolio manager at Amplify ETFs — said that in the past, Bitcoin has often fallen in price without institutional involvement.
  • But this bear cycle is quite different because BTC is now a “mature asset,” with more liquidation and more institutional acceptance, such as JP Morgan reportedly accepting Bitcoin as collateral .
  • Data from CryptoQuant shows that investors who are selling BTC are still profitable , meaning there are no signs of capitulation or margin calls. However, retail investors are not buying the Dip , while whales are buying at low prices.
  • CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno said that the amount of BTC held in US ETFs has dropped sharply from 441,000 BTC on October 10 to just 271,000 BTC, reflecting weak demand from the US. At the same time, the " Medium order" in the spot market also shows that retail has not returned.

Technical perspective

  • While on-chain data hasn't shown anything too serious, weak demand hasn't been enough to stop the sell-off.
  • Analyst Luke Lango said the recent death cross is a worrying sign. He noted that over the past 13 years, every time Bitcoin broke the 50-week moving Medium during a bull run, the market crashed in the following 1-2 years.
  • BTC is now down about 27% from its recent peak — still within “normal range,” as the Medium Bitcoin bear market decline is about 30.8% (based on data going back to 2014). In 2022, there have been two declines of more than 45%.
  • Kelly said that tightening global liquidation , the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates, and the TGA's withdrawal of liquidation from the system have made BTC much more vulnerable.
  • He assessed the current situation as a combination of weak liquidation , continuous sell-offs, and declining sentiment , rather than a single shock.

“The Zone of Extreme Fear”

  • The market has entered “extreme fear territory” after Bitcoin failed to hold the psychological $100,000 mark, according to Kelly.
  • But investors have not lost interest. After the hot growth period since the January 2023 Dip , a “digestion wave” is normal.
  • History also shows that when the market falls into “extreme fear zones,” it is a good opportunity to cash in — especially for long-term investors who Medium over time.

Macro still favors Bitcoin

  • Frank Holmes — co-founder of HIVE Digital Technologies — says the macro backdrop is becoming more positive for both Bitcoin and gold.
  • “ Excessive government spending and constant money printing create long-term support for scarce and decentralized assets ,” he observed.

Holmes also emphasized that even if new user growth slows in the short term, structural trends such as rising debt, monetary expansion, and geopolitical Shard still favor Bitcoin in the long term.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $BTC/USDT $ETH/USDT $JU/USDT

📛 Bitcoin ATM Company Founder Charged in Alleged $10 Million Money Laundering Scheme!

The U.S. Department of Justice on Tuesday charged the founder of a Chicago-based crypto ATM company with taking in at least $10 million in criminal proceeds, and moving the money into digital wallets to conceal its origins.

  • The indictment, unsealed in the Northern District of Illinois, accused Firas Isa of running the operation through Virtual Assets LLC, a company that did business as Crypto Dispensers and operated cash-to-cryptocurrency ATMs across the United States.
  • According to the filing, victims and criminals sent the funds to Isa, his company, or a co-conspirator. While Bitcoin ATMs are supposed to institute know-your-customer (KYC) policies to curb money laundering through the machines, prosecutors said Isa converted the illicit funds the Crypto Dispensers ATMs received into cryptocurrency before transferring it to other wallets.
  • “The indictment alleges that Isa knew the money was derived from fraud,” the DOJ wrote.
  • The DOJ did not say in the indictment which cryptocurrencies or wallet providers were allegedly used by Isa in the scheme. Isa did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Decrypt.
  • Isa and Virtual Assets LLC were each charged with one count of money-laundering conspiracy, a charge that carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison. Both entered not-guilty pleas. A status hearing was set for January 30, 2026, before U.S. District Judge Elaine Bucklo.
  • The charge arrived at a time when federal prosecutors are adjusting how they police the crypto market. In April, the Justice Department said it would dissolve its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and stop bringing criminal cases against exchanges, mixing services, or cold-wallet holders for the actions of their users.
  • Last week, the DOJ, FBI, and U.S. Secret Service announced a new Scam Center Strike Force aimed at combating crypto scams that originated in China.
  • Prosecutors noted that the indictment against Isa and Virtual Assets is an allegation, and they are presumed innocent unless the government proves guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

If Isa or Virtual Assets LLC were convicted, they would be required to forfeit any property involved in the alleged money-laundering offense, including a personal money judgment, and the government could seek substitute assets if the original property could not be recovered.

#Bitcoin #BitcoinATM #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $BTC/USDT $ETH/USDT $JU/USDT

📣 T. Rowe Price Files for Mixed Crypto ETF With Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Exposure!

Asset management giant T. Rowe Price on Wednesday applied for a mixed digital asset exchange-traded fund, according to a regulatory filing, its first in the crypto space as it joined a growing list of traditional finance firms that have proposed token-focused products. 

The Baltimore-based firm, which manages $1.77 trillion in assets, said that the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF  would hold five to 15 digital assets, including potentially Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Shiba Inu, Hedera, Bitcoin Cash, Chainlink, Litecoin, and Polkadot, according to its S-1 prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest digital coins by market cap, will have the biggest weighting, according to the application. 

SEMI-SHOCK: T Rowe Price just filed for an Active Crypto ETF. They are a Top 5 active manager by assets (mostly mutual funds). Did not expect it but I get it. There’s gonna be land rush for this space too. pic.twitter.com/gXbCsll9kG

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 22, 2025

"Under normal circumstances, the Fund is expected to hold between five and fifteen crypto assets; however, the Fund may hold more than fifteen or less than five crypto assets at any time," the filing said, adding that the ETF would try to outperform the FTSE Crypto U.S. Listed Index.

The application comes as traditional finance firms look to expand their digital asset fund offerings to meet soaring investor demand, a result of the success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds that debuted last year and a friendlier regulatory and political environment.   

Fidelity, VanEck and ProShares have all proposed Solana funds. This week, ProShares also submitted a proposal for a mixed digital coin fund.

Several crypto-focused asset managers are also looking to list ETFs based on altcoins. The SEC is currently weighing more than 90 applications for crypto-focused ETFs. 

T. Rowe Price told Decrypt that it could not provide information aside from what was in the filing.

In January 2024, the SEC approved a slew of Bitcoin ETFs, including funds proposed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. The funds have had the most successful start in the ETF industry's 32-year history and now manage over $150.3 billion in assets. Ethereum funds, approved later in the year, now control about $23 billion in assets, most of those coming in the last four months. 

The funds have given more traditional investors and some institutions access to the world of crypto via shares that trade on a stock exchange. Previously, investors were discouraged by some aspects of buying digital assets, such as storing digital coins and paying tax on gains.

#cryptocurrency #blockchain #Jucom #Bitcoin #Ethereum

📝 Learn knowledge, earn rewards: Cryptocurrency Basics | Part 1

In this episode, we will explore the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies together. Cryptocurrency operates exclusively as digital entries on blockchain-based ledgers, contrasting with traditional physical currencies.

Bitcoin emerged in 2009 as the inaugural implementation of this model. Fiat currency, issued and controlled by governments and central banks, derives its value from government credit and public trust.

Cryptocurrencies leverage blockchain technology, operating via decentralized networks where distributed ledgers are maintained by globally distributed nodes without centralized control. This decentralized approach creates fundamental differences.

With fiat currency, governments can create more money through printing, potentially causing inflation. Many cryptocurrencies have a fixed maximum supply. Bitcoin will never exceed 21 million coins.

Cryptocurrency value derives from market forces rather than government policy, creating volatility while offering growth potential fiat systems lack. Traditional finance requires ID verification and banks.

Cryptocurrency transactions use cryptographic verification without exposing personal data, bypassing banks. JuCoin, Your Most Trustworthy Crypto Partner. #cryptocurrency #blockchain #Jucom #Jucoin #Bitcoin

❤️ Grayscale predicts new bitcoin highs in 2026, dismisses 4-year cycle view!

Grayscale Research said bitcoin could set new all-time highs in 2026, pushing back against fears that the cryptocurrency is entering a deep, multi-year downturn.

  • In a report published Monday, Grayscale argued that bitcoin is unlikely to follow the so-called four-year cycle — the widely held belief that BTC's price tends to peak and then undergo a severe correction once every four years, in line with its halving schedule. 
  • "Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that bitcoin's price will potentially make new highs next year," Grayscale analysts said.
  • Bitcoin has been experiencing a turbulent stretch since early October, falling 32% from its peak through most of November. The price briefly touched $84,000 on Monday before recovering to $86,909 as of 2:20 a.m. ET Tuesday, The Block's price page shows.
  • Grayscale noted that while long-term investors have historically been rewarded for holding through volatility, they must often "stomach sometimes challenging drawdowns" along the way. Pullbacks of 25% or more, the firm added, are common during bull markets and don't necessarily signal the start of a prolonged downtrend.

Breaking the four-year cycle

  • Grayscale outlined several reasons why bitcoin is set to break away from its typical four-year rhythm.
  • Grayscale pointed out that unlike prior bull markets, this cycle has not seen the kind of parabolic rally that typically precedes a major reversal.
  • Unlike prior cycles, the current market structure sees institutional money concentrated in exchange-traded products and digital asset treasuries instead of retail activity on spot exchanges, the report said.
  • The macro environment remains relatively supportive as well, Grayscale added, with potential rate cuts and bipartisan momentum on U.S. crypto legislation offering further tailwinds.
  • Tom Lee, CEO of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, echoed Grayscale's view, noting what he sees as a growing disconnect between market fundamentals and prices. 
  • "Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals, measured by wallets, onchain, fees or tokenization, have moved forward." Lee wrote on Monday in a post on X. "So risk/reward is attractive for BTC and ETH."

Lee also told CNBC on the same day that he remains bullish on bitcoin and expects the world's largest cryptocurrency to set a fresh all-time high by January next year.

#Grayscale #Bitcoin #Jucom #cryptocurrency #blockchain $BTC/USDT $JU/USDT $ETH/USDT